By Scott Carasik, Mike Harman, Alex Wiederspiel and Ethan Hammerman
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This draft doesn’t truly have any franchise QB’s. But with the help of our goyim guest, Mike Harmon of DraftMaven.com, Ethan Hammerman, Alex Wiederspiel and I will discuss the lack of franchise QB, as well as who our favorite QB is.
Scott Carasik - “There are no franchise QB’s in 2011.”
The biggest problem that I have with this draft is the complete and utter lack of a true franchise QB. To me, a true franchise QB needs the following: Size, Accuracy, Leadership, Character and the “it”-factor.
Size - A good QB in the NFL has to have some substance to him. There is a reason why Joe Hamilton, even though he could throw 80 yards could never be an NFL QB. He was 5’7”. A franchise QB is going to be at least 6’0” and more than likely over 6’2”. They are also going to have the right amount of bulk. While JaMarcus Russell was 6’6”, he was also 300 pounds. That was his downfall. Ideally the QB will be from 6’3”-6’6” and anywhere from 210 to 240 pounds. But to me as long as he is 6’1” or taller and over 200, while also under 260, he should be fine.
Accuracy - The one thing that can be taught. Completion % can be fixed with schemes, but as long as the throws are on target that matters more. How does he place his ball when he throws? The best QB’s will put their ball in a spot that only their receiver can catch it or have it be an incompletion.
Leadership - Can he come in and command his teammates respect? If you answer yes, the guy has leadership. Can he come in and be known as the guy who sets the example? If yes, proceed to more leadership. Can he come in and be the unquestioned commander of the team? If yes, there is the leader you need.
Character - Hard work. Ability to handle adversity. Learning a completely new scheme. Starting for more than 30 games. Not getting into trouble with the law. I can continue for hours on examples of good character. But if a guy is getting himself arrested, he’s not a franchise guy. If a guy is a prima donna and thinks he is the best thing since sliced bread, he’s not a franchise guy.
“It”-Factor - The ability to combine the four above categories into a special package that will lead the team to a title. To me, there is only one QB in this draft who seems to have all of these. And no, it’s not Cam Newton. It’s Colin Kaepernick. He has the size, the accuracy, the leadership and the character to be my franchise QB. At 6’4” 233, he has the size. Four year starter, team captain. Accurate with over 64% completion in his last year and over 60% in his last 2 years. Great TD to INT ratio for his career of 82-24. To me, Kaepernick is the franchise QB of this draft if there was one.
The problem with this draft is you have too many QB’s that have three of the first four qualities but you will lose out on the rest. Cam Newton doesn’t have the character of a top QB. Blaine Gabbert doesn’t have the accuracy. Ryan Mallett doesn’t have the character either. The closest one to one is Kaepernick He seems to have the full package, but that hard part is having him show it. Once he can, you could have a very scary player in the NFL.
Alex Wiederspiel - “Jake Locker will be the franchise quarterback of 2011.”
This draft isn’t necessarily devoid of a franchise quarterback, but it’s devoid of NFL ready quarterbacks that could be franchise quarterbacks. Ryan Mallett is likely NFL ready, but his off-field issues are almost overbearing at this point.
But after a lot of consideration, I think the quarterback most likely to succeed if handled correctly is Jake Locker. Locker is the type of player that with good coaching will become an All-Pro based on his level of talent. Locker changed his throwing motion this off-season, and he’ll have to adjust, but at the next level he has to correct his major footwork issues—predominantly his tendency to throw off balance. Even with his outstanding arm, correcting his footwork and balance will also improve his accuracy.
Locker reminds me of two players. On the one end, his college production is eerily reminiscent of Kyle Boller. On the positive end, he’s got Jay Cutler’s talent but he can move around in the pocket and has a high football IQ. In fact, you could even compare him to a younger Brett Favre with better size, athleticism, and a higher football IQ.
Locker comes from a pro-style offense, but the offense itself involved a lot of low percentage throws and Locker spent just two seasons learning it with sub-par weapons outside of Jermaine Kearse. Locker isn’t a finished product as far as reading defenses, but his progression in his two years running a Pro Style offense at Washington show cause for hope. If Locker is brought along slowly, and doesn’t play until his second or third year while he corrects his footwork flaws, he projects as a player that will seriously benefit from the jump from college to the NFL. Jake Locker will be the franchise quarterback of 2011.
Ethan Hammerman - “Ma Nishtana Hal-i-la Hazeh”
Happy holidays to all! The hypothetical non-denominational Christmahanakwanzikah that is the NFL Draft is almost upon us, and there are still a lot of questions that have to be answered. In Judaism, questioning is quite important: heck, we're just coming off a holiday where four questions were a central part of the main ceremony. The biggest question surrounding this year's draft, however, has to concern the quarterback position and the relative value of these players. Just like at the Passover seder, there are four questions we must answer: How does this talent compare to that in past years, which QBs are viable, where should the QBs be valued and where will the QBs be valued?
How does the quarterback talent compare to past years?
In my mind, there is no one quarterback who is immediately NFL ready in this draft class. Every single one has some sort of inherent flaw that muddies their outlook as a professional. This is not the first year where this has been the case: I think a strong argument could be made that, last year, there was no flawless quarterback prospect. Even though Sam Bradford had a phenomenal rookie season, he still sat out the entire prior year with an injury and also came from an offense that was not so similar to a pro set.
To be quite honest, I do not think that there has been a year with a truly fraughtless quarterback prospect since 2004, when Eli Manning was considered by many to be the next coming and a star in the making. Although some phenomenal talents were drafted in the years after him, all had major questions that teams undoubtedly looked at when evaluating the talent. Matt Ryan had interception issues at BC, Alex Smith came from a spread offense, Vince Young was not a prototypical passer, Jamarcus Russell was all arm no head, etc. Andrew Luck may be the next quarterback prospect who, at the very least, will have a minimal amount of flaws and will be the undoubted number one overall pick. Who knows for sure? Only time will tell. Still, my point stands: the amount of doubt that has been espoused about this quarterback class is a bit out-of-hand.
That being said, I'm not sure there is a Sam Bradford in this class. I'm not even sold on there being a Matt Ryan. I do think that, in terms of the past few years, this class sits about in the middle: a lot of upside, but some potential downside as well.
Which quarterbacks are the most immediately viable?
First of all, I think that Cameron Newton is a sensational athlete. In terms of his physical gifts, there has been no one better since Jamarcus Russell in 2007, period. He has a great deep ball, a good feel for the pocket, and is a bit more polished as a passer than some will give him credit for. Also, in the words of the immortal prophet T-Pain, "All [he] do[es] is win." Newton strikes me as a better version of Vince Young: therefore, I do think that it is viable to use a first round pick on him. However, I am a little fearful of his ability to diagnose plays and learn a playbook. I think that, when he goes to Carolina at 1, he will be in a good situation: a strong running game should do wonders for Cam, and there he could be immediately viable.
In the correct contexts, I do think that some other quarterbacks could be pro ready. Any player would look fine in a West Coast offense behind a good line, especially intelligent players like Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi, Greg McElroy and Andy Dalton. I don't like Dalton too much, but he could be a viable stopgap for a 6-10 team as a rookie.
Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker look like divergent prospects to me. Gabbert is the Shammai to Locker's Hillel (sages who were opposites. Yes, it's an obscure reference. Sue me.). Both have great physical gifts, and both are flawed. However, I think that Locker has a better attitude and would be more viable immediately than Gabbert would be. I trust Locker to be able to diagnose an NFL playbook and I do not question his will to succeed. I see Locker as a Jay Cutler type without the bad attitude, and that's a good thing. Gabbert ran a bunch of short, YAC-oriented offensive sets in college: if anything, an argument could be made that he was more system dependent than Cam Newton. In conclusion, I think that there are seven-eight viable quarterbacks as rookies (I do not think that Mallett or Kaepernick are immediately viable,) although with varying levels of success. I think the two most viable from this class are Newton and Locker, with Stanzi potentially slipping into the third position.
Where should the quarterbacks be valued?
In this draft class, there are three quarterbacks that I would use a first round selection on, simply because of potential. I would wager a top 10 pick on Cam Newton and late first round picks on Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker.
Ryan Mallett is a more interesting case. I'm just not sold on him being worth the character questions, although in terms of talent he is undoubtedly fourth on my board. After Locker, I would not value a quarterback in this class before a third round grade, where Stanzi and Mallett show up. These smaller, West Coast quarterbacks simply are not that viable at the next level unless a team is willing to mortgage the quarterback position to upgrade talent around it to the extent of the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Bucs...and in that case why take a QB in Round 1 when they can be had later? It is a vicious cycle or mismanagement and terrible valuation that causes mediocre teams to remain in that state for years and years. So, in conclusion, I would have three QBs as first/second rounders with the rest falling later on my board.
Mike Harmon - “Personally when I am looking for a quarterback to run my franchise, I want a winner.”
First off, I must say that I am honored to be a “Goyim Guest.” You may be asking yourself whether or not I am really qualified for the position, but the fact that I had to look up the meaning of Goyim should be proof enough that I am indeed a Goyim. In fact the only real (I think) Hebrew phrase that I know is “Kelev Ra,” but I don’t think something I heard from an action flick should really count.
But on to the topic of franchise quarterbacks in this year’s draft, finding a franchise quarterback in a draft class is like a business that is looking for a CEO with an MBA, 10 years of experience, and a history of success in the workplace. Unfortunately the only applicants for this business were: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, and Ricky Stanzi.
As you can see, this business is going to have to have to hire someone that doesn’t meet all of the desired qualifications. In terms of a franchise quarterback, there just is no true franchise quarterback in this year’s class, but there are a lot of guys that could end up being one. In fact, if I had to bet on it, I would say that we will one day look back at this draft class and wonder why so many NFL stars came from the class. In other words, there isn’t a single quarterback that should go in the top-20 of this draft, but there are a mix of eight (or even more) quarterbacks that could actually be taken in the top-100 this year.
Personally when I am looking for a quarterback to run my franchise, I want a winner. The player doesn’t have to have won a championship in college, but they have to be a winner. I want a guy that will compete on every play. I want him to win most of the games he plays in, and I want to know that he can come from behind and win it with just a few minutes left. I don’t want a quarterback that is known for the dumb move under pressure, or the costly turnover at the end of the game. Tom Brady was never a college winner, but he was able to bring his team back from the depths and sometimes he pulled out tremendous wins. That’s the type of guy that I want on my team. Unfortunately that means that Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, and Ricky Stanzi are not my franchise quarterbacks.
The second thing that I look for to differentiate is accuracy and production. I cranked the numbers for every NFL QB that threw at least 14 passes last year, and the average quarterback threw 21 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, at a 61.5% completion rate. I don’t care what system you ran in college, whether it was a pro style, an option spread, or the pistol, but you had better be accurate and productive (at least to the NFL level) in it. If you cannot be accurate in a gimmick offense, then the odds that you are able to successfully adjust to the NFL are low. Christian Ponder (barely), Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ricky Stanzi, and Ryan Mallett all passed the test. Blaine Gabbert failed on production, while Jake Locker failed on accuracy in all four years.
Another important aspect of the mix is potential. Prospect potential gets overrated all the time, but I think it just needs to be sorted out better. Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder are likely going to be over drafted because they are ‘safer’ prospects. The problem, however, is that Ponder and Dalton lack potential. Dalton and Ponder do not have the arm strength, the size, or the mobility to operate very well at the next level. You know how you always hear the saying ‘game manager’ when someone is talking about Kyle Orton? That is because Orton was never going to be able to lead a team consistently through the fire and into the promised land, and I fear that Dalton/Ponder just don’t make the cut there.
So with Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton as my final two candidates, I think you have to look at the entire package. Kaepernick has good size, decent arm strength, good mobility, a ton of experience, and some success from Nevada. He played in a very goofy Pistol offense where he led a number of 1,000 yard rushers each season. His completion percentage always increased in college, but unfortunately his TD to INT ratio dropped nearly every year, and his YPA numbers always remained at about 8.00. His footwork is ok, but not great, and he has one of the goofiest throwing motions on the planet. It almost looks as if he is throwing a javelin, and the ball comes out strange.
Cam Newton has great size, great arm strength, good mobility, two years of starting college experience, and historical success. Newton won the NJCAA championship before transferring to Auburn where he would go undefeated in an SEC schedule while winning the NCAA championship. Newton threw for 66% at a 10.2 YPA rate with 30 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. You have to take Newton’s statistics with a grain of salt, but he has shown that he is committed to learning a better offense during this offseason.
So while there might not be a franchise quarterback in this year’s draft, this Goyim is still going to have to take the likely 1st overall pick Cam Newton as his guy. I truly believe that if you are able to sit Newton down for a half (or so) a season that he could be able to turn him into an elite quarterback in the league. Newton is unfairly getting put into the Michael Vick, Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell group of mobile black quarterback list, and I think that is where he will prove his doubters wrong. Newton hasn’t shown any weight or conditioning issues (Russell). He hasn’t shown any mental illness or intelligence issues (Young), and he hasn’t shown the injury issues that Vick has. Newton does have a troubled past which does raise some concern, but I am willing to forgive and forget if he would be willing to earn his role on my team. He’s my franchise guy.
As I leave you here, Draftniks, I’d like to thank my fellow Jewish analysts in Ethan Hammerman and Alex Wiederspiel as well as Mike Harmon, our goyim guest, in assisting me on this article. Get ready for the next installment coming soon. L’Chaim! - Scott Carasik.
