By Jordan Grove
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With the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn. As the 2011 NFL draft fast approaches, many draft analysts have the Heisman Trophy winner slated for the #1 overall selection and why not?
Newton certainly possesses the talent to be in the discussion as the first pick of the NFL draft. He is perhaps the most electrifying collegiate player since Reggie Bush. He played and won against elite SEC competition and led his team to a national championship against Oregon. He broke and set numerous records while at Auburn. His charisma endeared him to the Auburn fan base and even notable quarterback guru Jon Gruden.
It’s not talent or the success that Newton had while in college that has teams worried. At the forefront are concerns about his character as he has had three major off-the-field incidents during his brief collegiate career.
The incidents start with his arrest on felony charges of theft, larceny, and obstruction of justice when he was a redshirt freshman at Florida. He was booked on the charge of stealing a laptop computer and throwing it out of his 3rd story dorm window when police began their investigation. The second incident was when he was caught cheating three times at Florida by turning in turning in papers he didn’t write, which is a major violation on any collegiate campus. Last and most infamous is the “sCAMdal” in which his dad, Cecil, allegedly sold his son’s services to both Mississippi State and Auburn.
Before the NFL scouting combine Newton held a phone interview with Sports Illustrated’s Peter King in which he said that he sees himself as “an entertainer and an icon”. This is all before he has taken a snap in the NFL. Needless to say, these incidents cause teams to question his maturity and leadership skills, both which are critical traits a franchise signal caller must possess.
The concerns of Newton’s football skills center around his throwing mechanics, footwork, and the system he worked in for a year while at Auburn. He spent one year under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, one of the most innovative and successful coordinators currently in college. Malzahn’s systems are simplistic and based around the hurry-up, no-huddle offense.
Malzahn’s system at Auburn saw Newton lining up often in the shotgun, making one quick read and then taking off running. On occasion he would make two reads before running. His accuracy when throwing is iffy as he sometimes throws off his back foot which makes his receivers reach, lunge, or jump for the ball. It wasn’t often that he delivered the ball right into their breadbasket.
Newton also didn’t have to make any 3, 5, or 7 step drops like he will have to make in the NFL. Due to that system, he possesses elementary pocket presence just like any quarterback coming from an option-based offense. The same concerns were cast upon Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick when they were draft eligible.
From 2006, Malzahn’s first as a collegiate OC (offensive coordinator), until last year every quarterback in his system has improved their passer rating. The only year that didn’t happen was 2009 with Chris Todd at Auburn.
Below is a list of the QB’s Malzahn has coached and their completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and passer rating.
2006 – Casey Dick/Mitch Mustain (Arkansas)
134 – 364 – 1885 – 19 – 15 – 123.1
2007 – Paul Smith (Tulsa)
327 – 544 – 5065 – 47 – 19 – 159.8
2008 – David Johnson (Tulsa)
258 – 400 – 4056 – 46 – 18 – 178.7
2009 – Chris Todd (Auburn)
198 – 328 – 2612 – 22 – 6 – 145.7
2010 – Cam Newton (Auburn)
185 – 280 – 2854 – 30 -7 – 182.0
As evidenced, the only year a QB in Malzahn’s has thrown below 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns was in 2006 and that was when he innovated the “WildHog” offense with the Cerberus of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Michael Smith with Peyton Hillis receiving some carries as well. Malzahn’s success is obvious by the fact that his teams have always gone to a bowl game when he’s the offensive coordinator.
One noticeable difference between last year’s #1 pick, Sam Bradford, and Newton is experience. At Oklahoma Bradford played attempted almost 900 passes, in one year at Auburn Newton attempted 280. While at St. Louis Bradford was coached by Pat Shurmer, a notable quarterback developer which helped Bradford’s chances to make a successful transition as an NFL quarterback. This year he’ll have the luxury of working with Josh McDaniels who is also known for his work with QBs.
Newton won’t have that luxury in Carolina. Also he will be moving from a system where he passed an average of 20 times and ran an average of 19 times a game to one where his running will have to be limited. When Michael Vick came into the league he ran 8-9 designed running plays a game. Newton would be a glorified running back with all the work that needs to be done with his throwing mechanics. He definitely can refine them but it will take time and excellent coaching which the Panthers lack when it comes to quarterback coaches.
The Carolina Panthers, the team that would be in the position to draft Newton #1 overall, faced a somewhat similar predicament last year around this time. They were in need of a new franchise quarterback since the decline of former QB Jake Delhomme and chose Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame in the 2nd round. John Fox and company weren’t able to mold him into an immediate starter and that was the last straw for Fox in Charlotte.
Now, a new coaching staff has been brought in with a head coach whose expertise lies on defense, just like John Fox. Ron Rivera, the new coach, hired Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator and Mike Shula as quarterbacks coach, the two men who would be critical in Cam Newton’s development. The problem lies in the fact that neither man has ever had to develop a quarterback in the NFL
More known for his work with tight ends, this is Chudzinski’s third stop as an offensive coordinator. He spent two seasons at Miami (FL) as OC under Larry Coker and took his first, and only until now, job as an NLF OC in 2006 under Romeo Crennel in Cleveland. During that one year, he and QB coach Rip Scherer helped Derek Anderson reach his only Pro Bowl during that one year. Now, Scherer is out of the league and coaching quarterbacks at the University of Colorado.
Mike Shula has spent the last four years as the quarterbacks coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars dealing with the development of David Garrard. In his first season in Jacksonville was also Garrard’s best season as he threw a league low three interceptions and finished with a passer rating of 102.2. In the three years since his QB rating on average is a 82.3. Garrard is regarded around the league as a slightly above average quarterback.
If Carolina were to draft Cam Newton, they would have to be patient with him and let him sit for at least a year to learn. The coaching staff would have a great deal of influence on him as the Panthers lack a veteran QB to teach Garrard the ropes. They also lack elite playmakers on offense as wide receiver Steve Smith is aging, running back DeAngelo Williams is a free agent, and running back Jonathan Stewart suffered several injuries last year.
If Carolina were to draft Cam Newton it would be a mistake. They don’t have the coaching staff in place to develop a quarterback, they don’t possess a strong locker room which is what Newton would need, and they won’t have the patience to let him sit and develop. If you draft a quarterback with the first pick then you expect him to play. If Cam Newton were to start from day one it would increase his bust factor exponentially.
If he does bust then it would put several of Carolina’s coaches at risk and would set the franchise back even further.
It’s unlikely that anyone that Carolina drafts will improve their win total next year. A shutdown corner like Peterson would help their defense and a dynamic wide receiver like AJ Green would help their passing game but neither would be game changers. If Clausen makes strides in his second season as a starter then he definitely would benefit by having a such a standout receiver in Green to compliment the speedy Steve Smith but it’s expecting a lot to hope that Clausen makes strides.
Newton, more than likely, would be thrust onto the field by day one as is expected when a quarterback is drafted #1. He would take his lumps like any quarterback and rare is it that a rookie QB comes in and lights up the field, especially a quarterback that needs so much work on his mechanics, footwork, and pocket presence.
The case against Newton to Carolina is further enhanced by the Panthers draft history. Owner Jerry Richardson seeks out upstanding players, or at least players that don’t have checkered pasts, in the first round. The last time he took a chance on an at-risk player was in 1997 with wide receiver Rae Carruth. After spending a year and a half in the league Carruth was cut by the Panthers after he was arrested and convicted on charges of conspiracy to commit 1st degree murder, shooting into an occupied vehicle, using an instrument to destroy an unborn child.
Since 1997 the Panthers have drafted the following:
1998 – DE Jason Peter (injury bust)
1999 – No Pick
2000 – CB Rashad Anderson (released by team after two seasons)
2001 – LB Dan Morgan
2002 – Julius Peppers
2003 – Jordan Gross
2004 – Chris Gambles
2005 – Thomas Davis
2006 – DeAngelo Williams
2007 – Jon Beason
2008 – Jonathan Stewart & Jeff Otah
2009 – No Pick
2010 – No Pick
The team released Peter before he went to substance abuse and they released Anderson as soon as he failed drug tests and was suspended by the league for violating their substance abuse policy. Newton’s character, while not as extreme as Carruth or Anderson, would have to make Jerry Richardson and the front office carefully examine his background to determine if he is a player that they would like to invest in.
The prudent move and the one that would characteristic of Carolina would be to draft Georgia WR A.J. Green with the #1 overall selection. He is regarded as one of the two safest prospects in the draft, the other being LSU CB Patrick Peterson, and would provide Jimmy Clausen with another weapon. If Clausen doesn’t develop like Carolina would like then the Panthers should be in a prime position next year to draft either Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, or Matt Barkley.
Newton certainly possesses the work ethic, desire, and leadership skills to become a solid even great NFL quarterback but the situation in Carolina is one that won’t help him reach his potential. Out of the top three teams in the NFL draft this year, the Buffalo Bills would seem to be the most ideal landing spot. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is known for his work with quarterbacks while Newton sits behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year or two and learns the system. The Panthers would be a taking a huge risk by selecting Cam Newton and they need to ask themselves if it’s a risk worth taking.
