NFL Draft Previews - NFC South

By Alex Wiederspiel

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You can't help but enjoy the plight of the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. They're not the type of team that's bad enough to consistently pick top five, but they're easily the least talented team in the NFC South right now, and about to lose a star in DeAngelo Williams. The Saints and Falcons will continue to duke it out for the top spot for a few years, while Tampa Bay is slowly creeping into the picture (the loss of Aqib Talib will hurt dearly). The division should begin to stabilize after year's of constantly changing winners. The key in Atlanta may very well be a change at offensive coordinator. In New Orleans, they still have a few more seasons as one of the league's better teams, and with an added pass rusher could be right back to competing for a title.

1. Atlanta Falcons
2010 Record: 13-3
Season Finish: Divisional Round Loss
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 27th Overall
2nd Round -- 59th Overall
3rd Round -- 91st Overall
4th Round -- 124th Overall
5th Round -- 158th Overall
6th Round -- 192nd Overall
7th Round -- 210th Overall (from Detroit)
7th Round -- 229th Overall
7th Round -- 230th Overall (from New England)
Team Needs: RB, WR, TE, OT, DE, OLB

The Falcons don't have a ton of needs, and some of them aren't even really pressing right now. The two needs that are immediate are wide receiver and offensive tackle. The Falcons badly want a compliment to Roddy White who can stretch the field, and also need a replacement for Tyson Clabo who is expected to depart in free agency. After that, the other needs are all future replacement needs. Some feel Michael Turner is being run into the ground and with Jerious Norwood unlikely to return in 2011, the Falcons need to find a good compliment to Turner, who may even one day replace him. At tight end, Tony Gonzalez is contemplating retirement after this season, so the Falcons will look to find his replacement as well (though they won't have much luck in the 2011 draft). Koy Biermann looks like he could wind up being a solid staple at defensive end for Atlanta, but they still need to add another pass rushing threat for passing downs and to eventually replace John Abraham who is now entering his twilight years. Lastly, Atlanta has to be concerned with Mike Peterson's career also coming to an end. They have a possible replacement in Stephen Nicholas on the roster, but may address this late to add some competition.

If Atlanta is able to trade up they want three players--A.J. Green, Julio Jones, or Patrick Peterson. Even though the Falcons secondary is not as bad as their last game of the season indicated, they dealt big money to Dunta Robinson and have a very underrated corner in Brent Grimes on the other side. Peterson is more of a luxury pick, but in the end Atlanta wants Green or Jones. If they can't move up, you could see Torrey Smith at 27 if he's still there or Titus Young, Jerrel Jernigan, or Edmund Gates in the second. It's a guarantee that Atlanta addresses the receiver position within the first two rounds.

Expect Atlanta to address offensive line if they stay at 27 and Torrey Smith is gone. Derek Sherrod is a perfect fit at right tackle to replace Clabo. If not, they'll wait until round two (assuming that they didn't lose their second round pick in a trade). By some combination the Falcons will pick either a wide receiver first or a tackle first because those are their most pressing needs. After that, you'd be most likely to see the Falcons grab a defensive end in the third because of the importance of the position. Ugo Chinasa and Greg Romeus will be possibilities. Justin Houston could also be a possibility in the third after his failed drug test at the combine. In the later rounds, the Falcons will likely address project players like Julius Thomas (tight end) and scat back (Shane Vereen, Jacquizz Rodgers).

2. New Orleans Saints
2010 Record: 11-5
Season Finish: Wildcard Round Loss
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 24th Overall
2nd Round -- 56th Overall
3rd Round -- 72nd Overall (from Washington)
3rd Round -- 88th Overall
7th Round -- 226th Overall
7th Round -- 243rd Overall (Compensatory Selection)
Team Needs: RB, OL, DE, DT, OLB, DB

The Saints great pass rush and turnover happy defense from a year ago was far more inconsistent in 2010 then during the Super Bowl run of 2009. Part of that comes from Alex Brown's average play on the strong side in the pass, and well below average in the run. Will Smith has proven to be one of the better all-around ends in the game, his only weakness being his inability to finish the quarterback off (otherwise he puts consistent pressure on and is an outstanding run defender). In the interior, the Saints got a mixed bag from Remi Adoyele and likely need to upgrade the position. Another linebacker will help take some pressure off of Jonathan Vilma, and in the secondary Jabari Greer really struggled this season and may need to be replaced. The Saints drafted Patrick Robinson in the first round in 2010, but a corner in the first three rounds could still be likely. Lastly, the Saints may draft a running back if a talented one falls, but it's not likely with all their defensive needs. In the later rounds, expect an offensive linemen because Carl Nicks is heading into restricted free agency. He's likely to be back in 2011, but down the road may not be re-signed after the Saints put a lot of money into Jahri Evans.

As you notice, New Orleans doesn't have many draft picks after round three. They could be a prime candidate to trade at 24th overall, because Seattle is primed to take a quarterback at 25. If New Orleans stays put though, it'll likely be a defensive end or defensive tackle in round one. If Corey Liuget somehow falls, he's almost a lock, but he's likely going to go around ten spots higher. The Saints should still be able to snag one of the premier ends like Ryan Kerrigan, Aldon Smith (if his youth drives his stock down), Da'Quon Bowers (his knee), Adrian Clayborne, or even a surprise pick in Jabaal Sheard. New Orleans will pretty much have their pick of the litter with most of the teams in front of them going hard after quarterbacks.

In the second, expect New Orleans to pounce on a defensive tackle. Marvin Austin (UNC), Kenrick Ellis (Hampton), and Stephen Paea (Oregon State) will all be possibilities here. The other option is a corner, but the position begins to drop off after the second round and where New Orleans picks the premier second round corners may be gone. I would expect the Saints to draft a corner in the third if they can snag a DeMarcus Van Dyke (Miami FL), Marcus Gilchrist (Clemson), or Curtis Marsh (Utah State). If not, the big pick here could be a 4-3 outside linebacker, which has lost a lot of value in 2011 and will help the 4-3 teams find some guys they wouldn't usually be able to get.

With two third round picks and running backs likely to fall, don't be surprised if New Orleans snags a Ryan Williams or Taiwan Jones in the third round (assuming the Saints don't trade down). Late in the draft, offensive line is a likely choice with Nicks' future up in the air.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2010 Record: 10-6
Season Finish: 3rd in NFC South
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 20th Overall
2nd Round -- 51st Overall
3rd Round -- 84th Overall
4th Round -- 116th Overall
5th Round -- 151st Overall
6th Round -- 187th Overall (from Kansas City)
7th Round -- 222nd Overall
7th Round -- 238th Overall (Compensatory Selection)
Team Needs: RB, OT, DE, LB, CB, S

Tampa Bay has a lot of needs after Aqib Talib's latest legal trouble will likely end his Buccaneers career. Ronde Barber's age is also a problem. Tampa Bay has some promising younger corners in E.J. Biggers and Myron Lewis, but this is a position that will have to be addressed in the second or third round. There's no question in anyone's mind--Tampa Bay is taking a defensive end first. This is a great year to need the position, because there are a plethora of defensive ends that will be available at 20th overall.

It's basically a lock that Tampa Bay will find a defensive end there. Whether it's Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Da'Quon Bowers, or Cameron Jordan even. It's a matter of who, not so much a matter of what position. Tampa Bay could even be the team that decides to trade up and try and snag Robert Quinn in the latter half of the top ten, but I think that Marc Dominik wants to build with as many picks as possible.

In the second round you can look at corners like Brandon Burton and Ras-I Dowling as being good fits. The Bucs need corners who can tackle in zone, and Dowling fits quite well. If they follow last year's draft strategy and take back-to-back ends (very possible since they need TWO ends) a corner in the third like Curtis Marsh would be an excellent fit. The Buccaneers will also likely add another running back, since it's believed that they aren't totally sold on LeGarette Blount yet and certainly don't feel beholden to the rest of their backfield.

Safety became an issue when Tanard Jackson's future is up in the air thanks to his failed drug tests. Even if Jackson is reinstated in September, he's unlikely in Tampa's long term plans. Expect safety to be addressed at some point as well in this draft.

The real wildcard in Tampa could be an offensive tackle. Donald Penn is well paid, but still struggles at times in pass protection. Jeremy Trueblood and James Lee both struggled at times in 2010, and the position could definitely be upgraded, though I don't expect the Bucs to prioritize this position in 2011.

4. Carolina Panthers
2010 Record: 2-14
Season Finish: 4th in NFC South
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 1st Overall
3rd Round -- 65th Overall
4th Round -- 98th Overall
5th Round -- 132nd Overall
6th Round -- 166th Overall
6th Round -- 203rd Overall (Compensatory Selection)
7th Round -- 244th Overall
Team Needs: QB, WR, TE, OL, DE, NT, CB

Boy, where do we begin? Carolina doesn't have as many needs as other teams that usually pick first overall because injuries were a big part of their downfall in 2010. That being said, they've still got plenty of them. The obvious elephant in the room is what they do with the first overall pick, and it seems like a lock that they take the "calculated risk" on Cameron Newton. The big thing with Newton is not to rush him on the field. Correct his footwork and let him get a feel for the playbook so that he's relatively comfortable before the Panthers decide to just throw him to the wolves.

Carolina is still going to look at Patrick Peterson, Marcel Dareus, and A.J. Green first overall, but it doesn't seem to be as much of a chance as one would think with all the questions about Newton. Hurney is taking a monumental risk, and he knows his fate is tied to Newton's.

So Carolina's piss poor decision to trade a future second for Armanti Edwards has also landed them without the first pick of the second round. Horrendous mistake. This is why I caution on trading future picks for current ones. Future picks for established players is one thing...but the Panthers have seen no return so far from Armanti Edwards and are now out one of the most valuable picks in the draft. In the third, Carolina is a good bet to address the defensive line. They could use pass rushers, though it's unlikely they give up on former second rounder Everette Brown yet. They also need a nose tackle. Derek Landri and Nick Hayden are a solid rotation at under tackle, but neither can really play the nose as efficiently as a bigger and stronger guy like Stephen Paea or Kenrick Ellis could.

Another possibility in the third round is corner. Richard Marshall is on his way out after a dismal season, and while Captain Munnerlyn played well, it wouldn't be a shock if the Panthers wanted to add another corner. That being said, they have more pressing needs along the trenches and probably won't go this route. Adding another guard would be huge. Getting back a healthy Jeff Otah and Travelle Wharton will be huge for the offensive line, but the Panthers still need another guard and the third could be a prime spot to pick one up (Rodney Hudson, Florida State or Darius Morris from Temple). The Panthers could possibly draft another running back, but it's likely that they believe enough in Mike Goodson not to bother. One thing is for sure, they probably won't go 2-14 again, but they're still likely picking in the Top 10 in 2012.