NFL Draft Previews - AFC East

By Alex Wiederspiel

AFC East - AFC North - AFC South - AFC West - NFC East - NFC North - NFC South - NFC West

So by now everyone should know how a mock draft works, but sometimes it's hard to dissect exactly what a team needs based on a mock draft. So these team guides should help you figure out what your team is going to do on draft day. Or not. We'll see come Draft Weekend.

1. New England Patriots
2010 Record: 14-2
Season Finish: Divisional Round Loss
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 17th Overall (from Oakland)
1st Round -- 28th Overall
2nd Round -- 33rd Overall (from Carolina)
2nd Round -- 60th Overall
3rd Round -- 74th Overall (from Minnesota)
3rd Round -- 92nd Overall
4th Round -- 125th Overall
5th Round -- 159th Overall
6th Round -- 193rd Overall
Team Needs: RB, WR, OT, OG/C, 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB, S

The Patriots have a surprising amount of needs for a team that went 14-2 and is already outrageously young. Even more credit to Bill Belichick for getting New England to 14-2 this season. New England has found a few studs via the draft in right tackle Sebastian Vollmer (likely the left tackle of the future in New England) and of course former first rounder Jerod Mayo. Devin McCourtey had a very good rookie season, though he still has to grow as a complete corner and not just a turnover machine. Still, the nucleus in New England should be exciting fans because the Patriots have essentially been able to rebuild without going through colossally bad seasons. The Patriots continue to perform well with role players at many positions, especially on defense. This is mainly because the offense has been so good that it puts the team in a position to win games.

The key to beating New England last season, was to keep their offense off the field, and force them into long yardage downs to exploit the weaknesses on the offensive line--something that the Jets were able to do twice last season.

The Patriots have a ton of draft picks to continue this process of rebuilding, though I expect the Patriots are likely to trade down at least once (as per their usual standard). I fear that Bill Belichick is biding his time with these draft picks, and that sooner or later, he is going to use the stockpile to go after an elite prospect. Or the other option is that Bill is simply very picky about what he adds to his team from a rookie standpoint (also very likely). Maybe it's both.

Either way, it's unimportant. New England has two very valuable picks at 28 and 33. With the expected run on quarterbacks on draft weekend, the Patriots could hold prime position to make a trade out with a team looking to move either direction. Andy Dalton could be someone a team trades up for in that position, though I think Dalton could suffer a similar draft day fall to Colt McCoy even though he's a far superior prospect to McCoy. That being said, don't expect New England to use either of their first two picks on a running back or wide receiver. There is a chance that not a single running back goes in the first round because of the devaluation of the position thanks to a plethora of good young backs around the league. Receiver is another position New England is young at, and may choose to address when free agency inevitably begins. The Pats are likely to go after a 3-4 defensive end or outside linebacker at 17th overall. They'll be in prime position to snag J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Brooks Reed, and a bevy of other good fits in the 3-4. It's most likely that the Patriots wind up with a 5-tech DE at 17th overall, and my guess right now is J.J. Watt. At 28th, expect them to look at the offensive line. Logan Mankins future is uncertan, Stephen Neal retired, and Matt Light's career is in it's twilight. The Patriots will definitely address the line. There are a number of possibilities, including Benjamin Iljana of Villanova (a swing tackle/guard), Marcus Cannon (a big mauler who could play right tackle in a pinch), Mike Pouncey (an experienced guard who has also played center), Gabe Carimi (a great run blocking tackle who is still a little raw), and Derek Sherrod (an experienced technician who can play left or right tackle). I'm almost positive that New England will address either 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB, or some part of the offensive line with their two first round picks.

Mark Ingram is a serious possibility at 33 if he falls, but the Patriots can likely snag Ryan Williams or Mikel Leshoure with their later 2nd round pick. Shane Vereen and Taiwan Jones will also be options with their second second or first third. Expect the Patriots to also address safety with Brandon Merriweather's legal woes and a down season from him.

I could also see the Patriots drafting another developmental quarterback if they've filled all of their needs. Probably nothing before the 5th round.

2. New York Jets
2010 Record: 11-5
Season Finish: AFC Runner-Ups
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 30th Overall
3rd Round -- 94th Overall
4th Round -- 126th Overall
5th Round -- 161st Overall
6th Round -- 194th Overall
7th Round -- 208th Overall (from Arizona)
Team Needs: Slot WR, Back-up TE, Back-up OL, 3-4 DE, 3-4 NT, 3-4 OLB, CB, S

The Jets are a team with a bevy of needs, and limited picks to fill them. When player movement becomes unlocked, I expect the Jets to go after a stop gap corner if they don't retain the services of Antonio Cromartie. Kyle Wilson will not get handed the starting job, and will likely be the nickel corner in 2011. Don't expect the Jets to draft a corner unless it's late. At safety the Jets could go after one as early as the first round (Rahim Moore would be the choice) because Jim Leonhard is entering the final year of his contract and coming off of a major shin injury. Eric Smith, Brodney Pool, and James Ihedigbo are all free agents in some form. Smith is a great in-the-box safety, but awful in coverage. Brodney Pool was inconsistent in 2011, but was superb in the playoffs. If the Jets choose to re-sign Pool, it's likely that they don't draft a safety until the later rounds. Ihedigbo is a great special teams player and a hard-hitting safety, but can't be relied on in coverage.

The front seven is where New York really needs to focus. Shaun Ellis may still be re-signed, but if he isn't, the Jets will go into the season with Marcus Dixon as the bookend to Mike DeVito. Dixon is a project, and is nowhere near ready to be a starter. Ellis is likely to sign a one-year deal with New York, which could allow New York to wait until the 3rd or 4th round to draft a five tech unless one of the bigger names (J.J. Watt or Cameron Jordan) fall to the 30th overall pick. It's most likely that the Jets go after a nose tackle (Phil Taylor or Jerrell Powe in the 3rd), or a 3-4 outside linebacker. At 30th overall Brooks Reed or Akeem Ayers are the top possibilities as far as availability go. Rahim Moore is likely to be the first safety drafted, and there's an outside shot that he goes 30th overall. This is a weak safety class, and Moore could fall all the way to the second round.

The nose tackle situation is strange. Sione Pouha has done a fantastic job as a run-stuffer, but he's like Chris Hoke or Ron Edwards. He's undersized for a nose tackle, and doesn't improve the Jets pass rush a lick. Kris Jenkins may get a try-out as he attempts another comeback from ACL surgery, but the Jets can't count on him. They need someone who can command double teams in the passing game and open things up for the linebackers. If the Jets draft a nose tackle, he's unlikely to start right away, but if he does, Pouha can rotate at nose tackle and at defensive end with another rookie, which might be the most ideal situation--getting Pouha out of the game on passing downs so he's fresh for running situations. If the Jets can come away with a pro-ready nose tackle (which is very hard in the draft), they're defense in 2011 could be outstanding (again).

On offense, the Jets are unlikely to draft a player in the first round. Braylon Edwards is likely to return, while Santonio Holmes status is up in the air, but it's likely the Jets bring him back as long as they offer him Roddy White money (which he is definitely worth). Brad Smith is pretty much guaranteed to hit free agency unless the NFL installs the 2010 free agency rules which would restrict player movement. Joe McKnight is likely to take Smith's role on special teams, but the Jets still badly need another wide receiver, especially with Jerricho Cotchery coming off of surgery this off-season. If the Jets draft a receiver, it will likely be in the 5th or 6th round and likely be a prototypical slot man. The Jets also need a run-blocking back-up tight end to replace Ben Hartsock, but they may look elsewhere for that.

On the offensive line, the Jets are, for the most part, okay. Damien Woody may come back to New York on a cheaper deal after his Achilles surgery, but if he does leave, the Jets have decided to let Wayne Hunter and second round pick Vladamir Ducasse battle it out for the right tackle spot. If the Jets draft a lineman, it will be later, since Matt Slauson played well enough in 2010 to earn him a roster spot and a chance to compete at left guard for at least one more season.

The last possibility is New York trading out of the 30th overall pick for a team trying to snag one of the late first quarterbacks, but I find it very unlikely with how many defensive needs the Jets have. The only way it happens is if the best player remaining is Rahim Moore (or he is gone) and the Jets aren't sold on him enough to late him in the first.

The Jets can make the playoffs again in 2011 if they can manufacture a pass rush, but the defense is about to see a lot of turnover. It's going to be up to the Jets to keep Mark Sanchez growing and make sure he still has a big array of weapons in Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Dustin Keller. In 2011, the Jets offense could carry the defense.

3. Miami Dolphins
2010 Record: 7-9
Season Finish: 3rd place in AFC East
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 15th Overall
3rd Round -- 79th Overall
4th Round -- 111th Overall
5th Round -- 146th Overall
6th Round -- 179th Overall
7th Round -- 217th Overall
7th Round -- 218th Overall (from Jacksonville)
7th Round -- 235th Overall (Compensatory Selection)
Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, FS

Miami's defense was one of the best in the league last year, but they really struggled to force turnovers. Miami is holding onto nose tackle Paul Soliai by way of the franchise tag, and Soliai had a breakout year in 2010 as a run defender. With another good year, he could earn a big contract, but Miami can't let him go. Don't expect them to draft a nose tackle unless it's late, but their front seven is fairly deep, so I don't expect it.

What Miami really needs is a safety who can force turnovers. Yeremiah Bell is good in-the-box, but awful in coverage, and Chris Clemons is only an average starter who will be pushed by young back-up Reshad Jones for a role on defense in 2010. Jones may be the reason why Miami avoids drafting a safety. He is a terrific talent, but looks more like he'll be the eventual replacement for Yeremiah Bell at strong safety. The other possibility for Miami is moving Sean Smith to safety and finding another number two corner. Miami is close to having a championship caliber defense. Now it's all about forcing turnovers.

Offensively is where Miami needs a little make-over. Chad Henne is going to be the incumbent starter in 2011, but he could lose his job to a rookie if the Dolphins choose to draft one in round one, which I think is a serious possibility. At running back, the Dolphins are likely to let either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams walk, and possibly both, which gives them a big need at running back, and makes them the most legitimate chance for Mark Ingram to go in the first half of round one. However, running back has lost some serious value with all the good young backs in the league, and Miami's other needs and no second round pick may inspire them to try to trade down in the first round. The Dolphins are also looking for a vertical threat at receiver. Brandon Marshall is a terrific combination of possession and power, while Bess is purely a possession guy, but the Phins have to make it a priority to find a speed threat.

On the offensive line, the Dolphins are likely to address that later. Vernon Carey may get kicked inside to guard because of some injury problems, which would alleviate the team's need at guard. If Carey stays at right tackle, the Phins will likely draft or sign someone to replace Richie Incognito, who has been a serious disappointment since he left St. Louis. The Dolphins may go after a late-round center. Jake Grove has plenty of talent, but has been an injury liability in year's past.

I fully expect Miami to exit the first round with a quarterback--a mobile quarterback. If Miami can trade down they are almost a guarantee, but I think they're going to wind up with Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert if he falls (but that's unlikely). I really think Colin Kaepernick is going to be a Dolphin in 2011.

Miami's close, but Jeff Ireland doesn't seem to care about his coach after the Harbaugh embarrassment this off-season where Ireland basically threw Sparano under the bus. I'm guessing that the Dolphins won't have a problem drafting a quarterback, even though a veteran would help this team win now, because they are built to win now. This team could unravel in 2011...or it could rise to the occasion magnificently.

4. Buffalo Bills
2010 Record: 4-12
Season Finish: 4th Place in AFC East
Draft Picks:
1st Round -- 3rd Overall

2nd Round -- 34th Overall

3rd Round -- 68th Overall

4th Round -- 100th Overall

4th Round -- 122nd Overall

5th Round -- 133rd Overall

6th Round -- 169th Overall

7th Round -- 206th Overall

7th Round -- 245th Overall (Compensatory Selection)

Team Needs: QB, TE, OT, 3-4 DE, 3-4 ILB, 3-4 OLB, CB, S Depth

Offensively, Buffalo was able to pick it up down the stretch thanks to the Chan Gailey offense, and inspired play from smart player Ryan Fitzpatrick and scrappy receiver Steve Johnson. Is it enough to make Buffalo a contender? Not by a long shot. The Bills were dead last in turnover differential and still need a lot of help in their transition to the 3-4 defense.

They have plenty of picks, but their first one will be the most important for the franchise since Jim Kelly in 1983. Buffalo could go with the best defensive player in Von Miller or Patrick Peterson, but they are hoping Carolina passes on Newton at first overall and they can snag him up. Newton and Gailey seems like a match made in heaven. Newton's got the athleticism to do wonders in the Gailey offense, and Gailey is a smart quarterback coach who could help Newton fix his many glaring flaws. If the Bills can't grab Newton, I expect them to take the best defensive player UNLESS the Bills are sold on Blaine Gabbert as a franchise quarterback (he would be a good fit for Gailey too). Tyron Smith has an outside shot at going 3rd overall, as an extremely athletic offensive tackle who can play on the left side. Buffalo's Demetrius Bell has turned into an adequate tackle, but if they feel Smith is going to live up to his talent then Bell will move to the right side and supplant Mansfield Wrotto. The most likely pick is Miller.

Buffalo will likely try and snag a quarterback, but will have to trade into the late 1st to do it. It's not out of the question, but they need someone with the arm to cut through the winds of Buffalo, and that sort of eliminates Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton. Ryan Mallett is probably not athletic enough to do it either, as he seems to be Drew Bledsoe with an attitude problem. If Buffalo doesn't come away with a quarterback within the first 34 picks I will be shocked.

The Bills drafted Alex Carrington and Torrell Troup last year to help with the 3-4 conversion in the trenches, but they are both a ways away from contributing. The Bills will likely look to add another 3-4 DE, and if they do I could see someone like a Stephen Paea or Lawrence Guy from Arizona State. If the Bills do wind up taking a quarterback 3rd overall, they're almost a lock to take a pass rusher with the 34th overall pick. This is an extremely deep class for pass rushers, and if Brooks Reed falls to 34, would be a perfect fit. One thing's for sure, Aaron Maybin won't be a contributor and Chris Kelsay must be replaced. Arthur Moats is a great athlete, but he's still raw.

Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner are both likely to hit free agency, though I think Poz returns. Whitner is likely to seek a big time contract from a team that will be disappointed with his play. The Bills will definitely address the secondary, but likely not until later. In a perfect world, the Bills would get Cam Newton at 3rd overall and maybe Brooks Reed or Justin Houston at 34.

Expect the AFC East to continue to be New England's for at least one more season, with New York and Miami still hot on their tail and battling for that wildcard spot. Buffalo is going to be in the dumps for a while, but a Newton-Gailey union could finally put them on the right path.